Market Commentary

FROM "PROJECT FREEDOM" TO THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING

The week opened with escalation: on Monday, the U.S. Navy launched "Project Freedom" to escort commercial vessels through the Strait. Iran responded by attacking several vessels and, historically, launching missiles and drones at the UAE for the first time since the ceasefire. However, markets absorbed the event without entering crisis mode: Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine qualified the incidents as "below the threshold of restarting major combat operations," and Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the ceasefire "certainly holds."

On Tuesday, Trump paused Project Freedom citing "great progress" toward a definitive agreement. Secretary of State Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury — the air and naval campaign launched February 28 — is "concluded." Per Axios, envoys Witkoff and Kushner are directly negotiating with Iranian officials a one-page, 14-point MOU that would formally declare the end of the war and initiate 30 days of detailed negotiations on Strait reopening, Iran's nuclear program, and sanctions relief. Talks could take place in Islamabad or Geneva.

Iran continues insisting any deal must include Lebanon. FM Araghchi met with Chinese FM Wang Yi in Beijing on Wednesday, signaling Iran seeks an active Chinese role in the post-war peace framework. The IRGC declared that "threats have been neutralized and new protocols are in place" for Strait transit.

OIL — SIGNIFICANT DROP ON NEGOTIATION PROGRESS

WTI oscillated between ~USD 93 (Wednesday, on negotiation progress) and ~USD 114 (Monday, during Project Freedom). Brent fell to ~USD 97–101 mid-week before partially recovering to ~USD 100 Thursday. Oil falling below USD 100 — a level not seen since mid-April — was the primary catalyst for Wednesday's equity rally.

EQUITIES — DOW CROSSES 50,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME

Wednesday was the standout session: the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time in history (+600+ points), led by industrials and entertainment. The S&P 500 hit an intraday ATH of ~7,377. The Nasdaq reached ~25,976 (+1.34%), led by semiconductors. Thursday pulled back: S&P -0.38% to 7,337, Dow -313 to 49,597, Nasdaq -0.13% to 25,806, as oil partially recovered.

CLARITY ACT — STABLECOIN REGULATION ADVANCES

Lawmakers reached a compromise on stablecoin regulation under the CLARITY Act. Bank of America called the resolution "a net positive" for the banking sector, noting it "should alleviate concerns tied to deposit flight, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and allow banks to engage with digital-asset infrastructure on more controlled terms."

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 80,250, touching the USD 80,000 negative gamma zone where options dealers amplify price moves. BTC touched USD 81,700+ mid-week driven by the confluence of Iran negotiation progress, oil falling below USD 100, and the CLARITY Act. Thursday's reversal (-268.50MM in ETFs) coincided with oil's partial recovery. Proximity to USD 80,000 is technically relevant: a clean break above could trigger an accelerated move toward the 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000. Support at USD 78,000–79,000; resistance at USD 80,600 then the 200 DMA.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 2,320. ETFs were positive the first two days (+61.30MM and +97.50MM, led by ETHA) but reversed Thursday to -103.60MM (FETH -62.30MM led outflows). ETH continues showing greater sensitivity to profit-taking episodes. Support at USD 2,200–2,250; resistance at USD 2,350–2,400.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 92.30, posting the largest weekly gain of the three assets (+5.8%). SOL ETFs recorded four consecutive positive sessions — the best streak of the year — with a net of +USD 33.00MM. BSOL accumulated +USD 30.20MM (91% of total). SOL appears to have definitively moved past the Drift Protocol exploit impact. Support at USD 86–88; resistance at USD 90–95.

This week's derivatives dynamics confirm that BTC is entering the most important technical transition zone of the quarter. With price touching USD 81,700 and currently trading at ~USD 80,250, BTC sits within striking distance of the negative gamma zone at USD 80,000–80,600. For investors, this means options dealers who sold contracts at this level will need to aggressively adjust their hedges when price reaches it, amplifying moves in either direction.

Funding rates remained in slightly positive territory during the first three days, reflecting healthy equilibrium between longs and shorts. Thursday, funding rates fell toward neutral, aligning with ETF profit-taking. The absence of massive liquidations during Thursday's pullback (unlike Weeks 13–14) indicates the market is operating with more moderate leverage levels — a more solid technical base for rally continuation.

The 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000 remains the defining technical resistance. A break above USD 80,600 with volume and without excessive leverage would establish conditions for a 200 DMA test in coming weeks.

BTC: The first two days were the year's strongest consecutive sessions: Monday +USD 532.30MM (IBIT +335.50, FBTC +184.60, MSBT +12.20) and Tuesday +USD 467.30MM (IBIT +251.40, FBTC +133.20, ARKB +92.30). These flows reflect institutional capital's immediate reaction to U.S.-Iran negotiation progress and Rubio's declaration that the military campaign is "concluded" — capital allocators interpreted this as a material reduction of the geopolitical tail risk weighing on their portfolios. Wednesday decelerated to +USD 46.20MM with internal divergences (IBIT +134.60 vs. FBTC -39.00, BITB -25.20). Thursday reversed to -USD 268.50MM (IBIT -98.00, FBTC -129.00), coinciding with oil's partial recovery and equity profit-taking. The weekly net of +USD 777.30MM is the second-best week of 2026 (after +USD 809.30MM in Week 17).

ETH: Flows followed a now-familiar pattern: strong early-week inflows (Mon +61.30MM, Tue +97.50MM with ETHA +69.50) that reverse Thursday (-103.60MM, FETH -62.30). The net of +USD 66.70MM is positive but considerably smaller than prior weeks, suggesting institutional enthusiasm for ETH is moderating while BTC and SOL capture a greater proportion of flows in this cycle.

SOL: The standout flow story of the week. Four consecutive positive sessions — first time in 2026 — with a net of +USD 33.00MM. Bitwise's BSOL accumulated +USD 30.20MM (91% of total). Tuesday recorded +USD 21.30MM, the largest daily SOL ETF inflow in weeks. This pattern signals clear restoration of institutional confidence in the Solana ecosystem, with allocators gradually rotating toward SOL as the highest-beta position in a rising risk-appetite environment.