Market Commentary

FOMC — THE MOST DIVIDED FED IN 34 YEARS

The April 28–29 meeting concluded with rates held at 3.50–3.75%, but with four dissenting votes — the largest internal fracture since 1992. Powell described four consecutive supply shocks (pandemic, Ukraine, tariffs, Iran) simultaneously pushing inflation up and employment down, leaving the Fed "in an unusually difficult situation."

Miran voted for a 25bp cut citing economic slowdown concerns. On the other side, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan held rates but opposed the easing bias — signaling no room for near-term cuts.

Powell announced he will remain as a Fed Board governor indefinitely, citing DOJ investigations he considers "unjustified." Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee, was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee the same day, advancing toward a full Senate vote.

IRAN — EXTENDED BLOCKADE, OIL AT 4-YEAR HIGHS

Trump rejected Iran's mutual Strait reopening proposal and, per WSJ reports, instructed preparation for an extended naval blockade. Iranian President Pezeshkian denounced the blockade as "an extension of military operations." Brent briefly touched USD 126/bbl Thursday — a four-year high — before settling at ~USD 114. WTI closed at ~USD 105. A Japanese tanker (Idemitsu Maru) transited the Strait with Iranian coordination, carrying 2 million barrels — but this was an isolated case, not a generalized reopening signal.

EQUITIES — APRIL CLOSES AS BEST MONTH SINCE 2020

Despite intra-week volatility, April closed as a historic month. The S&P 500 hit a new ATH of 7,209.01 on Thursday April 30 (+1.02%), its first close above 7,200. Nasdaq closed at 24,892.31 (record). April performance: S&P +10.4% (best month since Nov 2020), Nasdaq +15.3% (best since April 2020), Dow +7.1%.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 78,500, holding remarkably resilient despite -USD 467.00MM in ETF outflows. This divergence — stable price against significant outflows — suggests spot demand and non-ETF institutional channels (OTC desks, corporate treasuries) are absorbing ETF selling pressure. Support at USD 76,000–77,000; resistance at USD 80,600 and the 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 2,305, essentially flat. ETH ETFs registered -USD 183.70MM with Fidelity's FETH leading outflows. The three-week consecutive inflow streak was interrupted. Support at USD 2,200–2,270; resistance at USD 2,400–2,450.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 84.25, with a modest ~2.3% decline. ETFs recorded -USD 1.20MM (minimal activity). Support at USD 82–84; resistance at USD 87–90.

The week presented a relevant contrast between what derivatives anticipated and what actually occurred. Ahead of the FOMC, options markets had significantly increased demand for downside protection (puts), reflecting uncertainty about the Fed's internal division and the possibility of a more restrictive tone. However, the market's reaction to the announcement was moderate — BTC held the USD 76,000–79,500 range — indicating the hold decision, while divided, did not surprise the market's base case.

Funding rates moved slightly negative on Tuesday and Wednesday, reflecting temporary bearish bias in perpetual contracts. This indicates leveraged traders were anticipating a post-FOMC decline that did not materialize. By Thursday, funding rates normalized, aligning with the ETF recovery (+USD 23.50MM).

A notable data point: despite -USD 467.00MM in ETF outflows, BTC did not fall below USD 76,000 at any point during the week. This resilience suggests structural demand at USD 75,000–77,000 levels from non-ETF institutional channels (OTC desks, corporate treasuries, sovereign buyers). The dynamic mirrors what was observed in Week 14, where ETF outflows did not prevent the price from holding and eventually rising in subsequent weeks.

BTC: The reversal from +USD 809.30MM the prior week to -USD 467.00MM is significant and warrants context. Monday opened with -USD 263.20MM (FBTC -150.40, ARKB -43.30, GBTC -46.60) — the largest daily outflow since Week 14 — reflecting pre-FOMC uncertainty and signals of Trump's extended blockade plans. Tuesday continued with -USD 89.70MM (IBIT -112.20, partially offset by ARKB +41.20). Wednesday, the FOMC announcement day, registered -USD 137.60MM — the market absorbed the 8-4 split and Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal negatively. Thursday marginally recovered: +USD 23.50MM (IBIT +19.10, FBTC +26.60).

The fundamental read is that regulated institutional capital (ETFs) operated in pre-FOMC risk reduction mode amid the oil escalation, while the spot market absorbed that selling pressure without allowing a significant price decline. Fidelity's FBTC was the instrument with the largest cumulative outflows (-USD 168.10MM across 4 days), suggesting a relevant portion of profit-taking came from Fidelity private banking clients who entered during prior weeks at lower prices.

ETH: The -USD 183.70MM in outflows interrupts the three-week consecutive inflow streak. Fidelity's FETH led with -USD 48.40MM on both Monday and Wednesday, and BlackRock's ETHA registered outflows all four days. The pattern is consistent with BTC: institutional risk reduction pre-FOMC and amid escalating energy costs. ETH continues to demonstrate greater sensitivity than BTC to risk-off episodes — outflows as a proportion of AUM were more pronounced than BTC's.

SOL: Virtually no activity with -USD 1.20MM (only GSOL -1.20MM on Wednesday). The absence of flows — neither significant inflows nor outflows — reflects that institutional allocators treated SOL as a low-priority asset during a week dominated by macro risk.