Market Commentary

CEASEFIRE EXTENDED INDEFINITELY — BUT RENEWED TENSION THURSDAY

On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social extending the ceasefire "until negotiations conclude." The extension was requested by Pakistan (Field Marshal Munir and PM Sharif). However, the planned second round in Islamabad was cancelled — Vance did not travel. Trump told CNBC he initially did not want to extend: "we don't have that much time," but yielded to Pakistan's request. On Wednesday, Trump gave Iran 3–5 days to submit a unified peace proposal.

Thursday, the situation complicated. Israel's N12 reported Iran's parliament speaker resigned from the negotiating team, suggesting the Revolutionary Guard is taking firmer control. Later, Iran's Mehr agency reported air defenses were activated "engaging hostile targets" over Tehran. Brent surged above USD 105/bbl. The State Department announced a new round of Israel-Lebanon negotiations.

OIL — INTRA-WEEK VOLATILITY

WTI oscillated between ~USD 89 (Monday, on ceasefire extension) and ~USD 95+ (Thursday, on renewed tensions). Brent closed Thursday above USD 105/bbl. The U.S. Treasury indicated Iran's Kharg Island storage facilities will be full "in days" due to the naval blockade.

EQUITIES — NEW HIGHS, THEN PULLBACK

Wednesday: S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 (+1.05%) — new ATH. Nasdaq 24,657.57 (+1.64%) — new ATH. Dow 49,490.03 (+0.69%). The S&P 500 has fully recovered all Iran war losses. Thursday: pullback — S&P 7,108.40 (-0.41%), Nasdaq 24,438.50 (-0.89%), Dow 49,310.32 (-0.36%). IBM and ServiceNow led declines on quarterly results.

FOMC AHEAD

FOMC meeting scheduled for April 28–29. CME FedWatch maintains 98% probability of rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 78,094, consolidating in the USD 75,000–78,500 zone after two weeks of gains. Strategy purchased 34,164 BTC for ~USD 2,540MM at USD 74,395 average, raising holdings to 815,061 BTC — surpassing BlackRock as the world's largest institutional BTC holder. ETFs posted +USD 809.30MM, best week of 2026. MSTR surged ~25% in 5 days. Support at USD 75,000–76,000; intermediate resistance at USD 80,000–80,600; 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 2,325, pulling back from ~USD 2,460. Thursday saw -USD 75.90MM in ETFs. Weekly net still positive: +USD 131.70MM. Third consecutive week of net inflows. Support at USD 2,200–2,300; resistance at USD 2,450–2,500.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 86.39, pulling back from ~USD 90. ETFs +USD 10.40MM. Second consecutive week of net inflows. Support at USD 84–85; resistance at USD 90–92.

BTC's consolidation in the USD 75,000–78,500 zone presents technically healthy characteristics for investors. Funding rates (the cost leveraged traders pay to keep perpetual contract positions open) have stabilized in neutral territory, meaning there is no significant imbalance between bullish and bearish positions. This equilibrium is important because it indicates the recent rally is not being sustained by excessive leverage — but rather by real demand from spot market buyers and through ETFs.

Futures Open Interest (the total volume of open contracts) remains elevated, but new positions are evenly distributed between longs and shorts. This differs significantly from Weeks 13–14, when Open Interest was dominated by short positions that were eventually liquidated during the subsequent rally. The current base is more solid because it does not depend on a short squeeze to advance.

In the options market, the USD 80,000–80,600 zone is a critical negative gamma level: as price approaches this level, market makers (dealers) who sold options need to buy or sell BTC to hedge their exposure, which amplifies price moves in either direction. For investors, this means the USD 80,000 zone will likely generate elevated volatility when BTC reaches it. The 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000 remains the most relevant technical resistance for the next rally phase.

BTC: Four consecutive positive sessions — first time in 2026 — with a net of +USD 809.30MM, the year's record and nearly double the +USD 531.00MM from Week 15. This volume of inflows reflects a structural shift in institutional positioning: regulated capital allocators are transitioning from a defensive posture (accumulated during Weeks 13–14, dominated by wartime uncertainty) to an active accumulation stance, driven by the indefinite ceasefire extension and confirmation that core inflation is manageable.

BlackRock's IBIT concentrated over USD 700MM of weekly inflows, consolidating its dominance as the preferred institutional vehicle. Morgan Stanley's MSBT — the market's newest ETF — showed consistent daily inflows of USD 8–11MM, signaling that new private banking participants are accessing BTC through regulated channels for the first time. ARKB and FBTC alternated between inflows and outflows, reflecting the tactical rebalancing pattern typical of institutional portfolios that adjust exposure intra-week based on geopolitical news flow.

ETH: Third consecutive week of net inflows (+USD 131.70MM) — a trend marking the most sustained recovery since these products launched in July 2024. The first three days were consistently positive (Mon +67.80MM, Tue +43.40MM, Wed +96.40MM), driven by BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH. Thursday's reversal (-75.90MM, led by FETH -51.30MM) coincided with air defense activations in Tehran, demonstrating that ETH remains more sensitive than BTC to geopolitical risk-off episodes. However, the fact that three consecutive weeks closed positive indicates that the institutional demand base for ETH is broadening, likely supported by the SEC's safe harbor for non-custodial DeFi interfaces.

SOL: Second consecutive week of net inflows (+USD 10.40MM), though volume remains modest compared to BTC and ETH. Activity concentrated in two sessions (Mon +3.10MM, Thu +7.30MM), with Bitwise's BSOL as the primary recipient. Flows suggest institutional confidence in the Solana ecosystem is gradually restoring after the Drift Protocol exploit impact, but has not yet reached the breadth necessary to be considered a consolidated trend.