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Market Commentary
Week 16 confirms the transition to a constructive market regime. The confluence of favorable inflation data, geopolitical progress, and institutional demand drove BTC above USD 77,864, ETH above USD 2,452, and the S&P 500 to new all-time highs above 7,100.
(i) The Strait of Hormuz was declared "completely open" Friday: Iranian FM Araghchi announced full Strait opening for commercial traffic during the ceasefire, in line with an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reached this week. Oil plunged ~11%, the Dow surged 1,005 points (+2.1%), and the S&P 500 crossed 7,100 for the first time — a new all-time high.
(ii) Core inflation below expectations — the Fed can wait: March CPI printed 3.3% headline (energy-driven +10.9%), but core CPI was 2.6% — one-tenth below consensus. March PPI surprised even more: 0.5% m/m vs. 1.1% expected, with core PPI at 0.1% vs. 0.4% estimated. BTC rallied from ~USD 70,500 to above USD 76,000 during the week. The market reads inflation as transitory and energy-driven, not structural — eliminating the risk of rate hikes.
(iii) ETFs positive across all three assets — first simultaneous episode in weeks: BTC accumulated +USD 332.60MM, ETH +USD 148.50MM, and SOL +USD 22.10MM. Monday was driven by the PPI surprise (+USD 411.40MM in BTC). Strategy resumed aggressive purchases: 13,927 BTC (~USD 1B) this week, plus 4,871 BTC the prior week, raising its total to over 780,000 BTC.
Macro & Global Markets
GEOPOLITICS — FROM ISLAMABAD TO AN OPEN STRAIT
The week began with echoes of the failed Islamabad Talks (Apr 11–12), after which Trump declared a naval blockade of the Strait against vessels bound for Iranian ports. However, signals of a possible second round of negotiations maintained optimism. On Tuesday, Trump told the New York Post talks "could resume over the next two days." By Wednesday, the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs on de-escalation expectations.
The decisive catalyst came Friday: Iranian FM Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial traffic, in line with an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reached this week. Approximately 230 loaded oil tankers waiting inside the Gulf can now begin transiting. Markets responded with the broadest rally of the quarter.
OIL — HISTORIC DROP ON REOPENING
WTI closed Tuesday at ~USD 91.28/bbl (-8%) on signals of renewed talks. Friday's Strait opening announcement crashed prices further: WTI fell to ~USD 82–85 and Brent to ~USD 80–83, a ~11% intraday decline. Oil prices now sit at their lowest since mid-March, though still above pre-conflict ~USD 70 levels.
EQUITIES — ALL-TIME HIGHS
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,022.95 (+0.80%) — a new ATH — with the Nasdaq at 24,016.02 (+1.59%). The Nasdaq strung together 11 positive sessions, the longest streak since November 2021. Friday saw the S&P 500 cross 7,100 and the Russell 2000 hit a record. The S&P 500 has fully recovered all Iran war losses.
INFLATION — CORE BELOW EXPECTATIONS
March CPI (released Apr 10): 3.3% headline — highest since April 2024 — driven by 10.9% energy cost spike. Core CPI: 2.6% y/y and 0.2% m/m, both one-tenth below consensus. March PPI (released Apr 14): 0.5% m/m vs. 1.1% expected. CME FedWatch shows 98% probability of rates held at 3.50–3.75% at the April 28–29 meeting.
Price Action — Weekly Ranges
Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 77,065, posting ~8.2% weekly gain — the second consecutive week above 7%. BTC broke through the USD 75,000 resistance where options dealers are in deeply negative gamma. The rally was driven by four converging drivers: (1) below-expectations PPI on Monday pushing BTC to USD 76,000; (2) robust ETF flows (+USD 332.60MM); (3) Strategy buying 13,927 BTC (~USD 1B); and (4) the Strait of Hormuz reopening Friday. A Citigroup study published Wednesday supports combined BTC and gold inclusion in institutional portfolios. Support at USD 73,000–75,000; intermediate resistance at USD 80,000–80,600; 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000.
Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 2,420, leading the recovery with ~10.9% weekly gain — the largest of the three assets. ETH benefited from: (1) positive ETF flows for a second consecutive week (+USD 148.50MM); (2) new SEC guidance granting a 5-year safe harbor for non-custodial DeFi interfaces — directly favorable for the Ethereum ecosystem; and (3) Citigroup's diversification study. Support at USD 2,200–2,300; resistance at USD 2,500.
Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 88.80, recovering strongly (+7.8%) with positive ETF flows for the first time in three weeks (+USD 22.10MM). BSOL led with +USD 15.50MM Thursday. SOL appears to be moving past the Drift Protocol exploit impact. Support at USD 84–86; resistance at USD 90–95.
Derivatives & Microstructure
RALLY VALIDATED BY SPOT DEMAND, WITH RISING LEVERAGE SIGNALS
The Week 16 rally maintains healthy characteristics at its base: led by ETF flows and spot demand, with funding rates in slightly positive territory. However, Wednesday April 16 saw a significant intraday volatility episode: BTC swung between USD 73,200 and USD 75,400, generating USD 283MM in liquidations in three hours (USD 166MM longs, USD 117MM shorts). This suggests leverage is beginning to build in the USD 75,000–78,000 zone.
Options dealers are in deeply negative gamma at USD 75,000, meaning their hedging amplifies price moves in either direction. Consolidation above USD 75,000 without excessive leverage is necessary for a clean extension toward USD 85,000–90,000.
U.S Spot ETFs — Institutional Flows
BTC: Monday opened with -USD 291.00MM (FBTC -229.20, ARKB -62.90) reflecting initial Islamabad failure reaction. Tuesday reversed dramatically: +USD 411.40MM (IBIT +213.80, ARKB +113.10) on PPI surprise and renewed talk signals. Wednesday continued: +USD 186.10MM (IBIT +291.90). Thursday modest: +USD 26.10MM. Notably, Morgan Stanley's MSBT ETF showed consistent daily inflows of +USD 6.30 to +USD 19.30MM — signaling new institutional participants entering the market.
ETH: Positive flows all four days — the first time in 2026 that ETH ETFs recorded four consecutive inflow sessions. Mon +9.50MM, Tue +53.10MM (FETH +38.10), Wed +67.90MM (ETHA +31.50, ETH Grayscale +24.80), Thu +18.00MM. The SEC DeFi safe harbor likely contributed to improved institutional appetite for ETH.
SOL: First positive week in three, with +USD 22.10MM. Thursday concentrated most inflows: +USD 15.50MM entirely in BSOL. Price recovery above USD 85 appears to be gradually restoring institutional confidence.
Conclusion & Positioning
Week 16 consolidates the regime change initiated the prior week. All three monitored assets posted significant gains: BTC ~+8.2% to ~USD 77,864, ETH ~+10.9% to ~USD 2,452, SOL ~+7.8% to ~USD 90.28. All three ETF categories posted simultaneous positive flows — a breadth signal not seen since October 2025.
This rally's drivers are multiple and converging, giving it greater durability than single-catalyst moves:
Macro: Core CPI (2.6%) and PPI (0.1% core m/m) below expectations eliminate rate hike risk and confirm energy-driven, transitory inflation. The Fed can hold at its April 28–29 meeting. Strait of Hormuz reopening and oil's decline to ~USD 82–85 directly ease inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical: The combination of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Strait reopening, and signals of a second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations has progressively removed the tail risk weighing on risk assets since February.
Institutional: Strategy purchased ~USD 1B in BTC this week (13,927 BTC), Morgan Stanley's MSBT ETF shows consistent inflows, ETH ETFs recorded four consecutive inflow days, and a Citigroup study supports BTC inclusion in portfolios.
Regulatory: SEC issued a 5-year safe harbor for non-custodial DeFi interfaces (favorable for ETH), and the CLARITY Act roundtable on April 16 signals progress on Digital Asset market structure regulation.
Technical/Derivatives: Funding rates in neutral/positive territory, spot-led rally, and prior-week leverage cleanse provide a cleaner technical base. The USD 75,000 zone in BTC is a negative gamma level where dealers amplify moves — consolidation here is key.
Key catalysts — Week 17 (Apr 21–25):
- Ceasefire expires April 21 — active monitoring of extension or definitive agreement.
- Second round Islamabad — tracking resumption of U.S.-Iran negotiations.
- BTC technical — Support USD 73,000–75,000; intermediate resistance USD 80,000–80,600; 200-day moving average at ~USD 85,000–86,000.
- FOMC April 28–29 — Rates expected unchanged (98%). Attention to statement tone regarding the energy shock.
- Oil — Maintenance of Strait of Hormuz opening as the determining variable for energy price trajectory and risk assets.
April 10, 2026
Market Commentary — Week 15, 2026
U.S.-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Oil plunges. S&P 500 seven-session streak. BTC ETFs +531MM, best week of 2026.
April 3, 2026
Market Commentary — Week 14, 2026
Dated Brent hits USD 141 (highest since 2008), Iran April 6 deadline without agreement, payrolls +178K on Good Friday. BTC ETFs +22.20MM, ETH -42.10MM.
March 27, 2026
Market Commentary — Week 13, 2026
Record BTC options expiry (USD 14.16B), Iran deadline extended to April 6, BTC and ETH ETFs with outflows. Cautious sentiment.
March 20, 2026
Market Commentary — Week 12, 2026
BTC touches USD 75,912 on Tuesday in short squeeze, pulls back to ~USD 69,907. Fed holds rates (11-1) with hawkish dot plot. February PPI +0.7% doubles expectations. Iran strikes Qatar infrastructure; Israel commits to reopening Hormuz. BTC ETFs accumulate +USD 145.1MM net weekly.