Market Commentary

U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE — FRAGILE TRUCE WITH ISLAMABAD NEGOTIATIONS

On Monday April 7, with the deadline about to expire, Trump warned that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not capitulate. Less than two hours before the deadline, he announced a two-week suspension of attacks conditioned on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan (PM Sharif and Field Marshal Munir). Iran accepted to allow coordinated maritime transit and proposed a 10-point peace plan that the U.S. described as a "workable basis for negotiation."

However, execution has been contentious from day one. Israel declared the ceasefire does not include Lebanon and launched "Operation Eternal Darkness" — the most intense attacks on Hezbollah since the war began, killing 254 and injuring 1,165. Iran threatened to abandon the agreement if Israeli attacks in Lebanon continue. By Thursday, the ADNOC CEO stated: "the Strait of Hormuz is not open — access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled."

VP JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for direct negotiations with Iran this weekend. Netanyahu instructed his cabinet to open direct talks with Lebanon.

OIL — INITIAL PLUNGE, SUBSEQUENT RECOVERY

The ceasefire announcement crashed oil: WTI fell ~8% Tuesday night, dropping to ~USD 103/bbl from session highs of ~USD 117. However, the lack of effective Strait reopening caused prices to recover during the week. WTI closed Thursday at ~USD 97.87/bbl after briefly exceeding USD 100 intraday. Brent settled at ~USD 95.92. Gold held firm near USD 4,750/oz amid persistent uncertainty.

EQUITIES — SEVEN CONSECUTIVE WINNING SESSIONS

Markets celebrated the ceasefire with a historic rally. Wednesday April 8 was the standout session: S&P 500 +2.65%, Nasdaq +3.4%, Dow +1,226 points — the Dow's best day since April 2025. Airlines led (Delta +12%, American Airlines +11%, Southwest +13%). The streak extended through Thursday: S&P 500 closed at 6,824.66 (+0.62%), Nasdaq at 22,822.42 (+0.83%), Dow at 48,185.80 (+0.58%). The Dow turned positive for 2026 for the first time.

MARCH CPI (APRIL 10) AND ECONOMIC DATA

Friday April 10 (today) sees the release of March CPI. The prior reading was 2.4% y/y, with core CPI at 0.2% m/m. U.S. gasoline prices rose to a national average of USD 4.14/gallon (+39% since the war began), pressuring the consumer.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 73,000, posting the best week of the year with a ~7.6% rally. BTC broke above the USD 70,000 resistance that had acted as a ceiling for weeks, reaching ~USD 73,000 — its highest since mid-March. The catalyst was the combination of the Iran ceasefire, strong employment data (+178K), and robust institutional flows. Michael Saylor stated at a Mizuho event that BTC "likely bottomed at USD 60,000 in February." Support at USD 68,500–70,000; resistance at USD 75,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 2,250, with a similar weekly gain to BTC (~7.7%). ETH benefited from positive ETF flows (+USD 122.10MM for the week), with BlackRock's ETHA leading inflows. The price cleared USD 2,200 for the first time since mid-March. Exchange supply crunch continues. Support at USD 2,050–2,100; resistance at USD 2,300.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 84.50, recovering but still affected by the prior week's Drift Protocol exploit. SOL ETFs posted outflows of -USD 17.30MM, concentrated Tuesday (-USD 15.30MM in BSOL and GSOL). SOL was the only asset of the three with negative ETF flows. Support at USD 80; resistance at USD 86–90.

LEVERAGE LEVEL: DECLINING — SPOT-DRIVEN RALLY WITH REAL DEMAND

Unlike prior weeks dominated by bearish positioning, the Week 15 rally was driven predominantly by spot demand and ETF flows, not by derivatives leverage. BTC funding rates moved toward neutral/slightly positive territory during the week, indicating equilibrium between long and short positions — a healthier base for uptrend continuation. The negative funding rate streak that characterized Weeks 13–14 has been interrupted.

Liquidations remained relatively contained compared to the prior week, reflecting a more orderly ascent without the violent short squeezes that could have made the rally more ephemeral.

OPTIONS — REDUCED PUT SKEW

The ceasefire partially reduced the demand for downside protection that had dominated recent weeks. Implied volatility retreated from the ~50% levels of Week 14. Institutional investors are gradually rotating from defensive structures (puts) toward more neutral positioning.

BTC: The week opened with the largest daily inflow of 2026: +USD 471.40MM on Monday, driven by IBIT (+USD 181.90MM), FBTC (+USD 147.30MM), and ARKB (+USD 118.80MM) — reflecting the confluence of strong employment data and expectations for conflict resolution. Tuesday saw outflows of -USD 159.10MM and Wednesday -USD 124.50MM, in line with profit-taking after the initial rally and uncertainty over ceasefire implementation. Thursday resumed strongly: +USD 343.20MM, led by IBIT (+USD 269.30MM). The weekly net of +USD 531.00MM is the best week of the year for BTC ETFs, confirming that institutional capital is actively positioning for potential conflict resolution.

ETH: ETH ETFs posted a positive net of +USD 122.10MM — the best week of the year. Monday opened with +USD 120.20MM (ETHA +60.80MM, FETH +40.10MM), the largest daily ETH ETF inflow since launch. Tuesday reversed to -USD 64.70MM and Wednesday to -USD 18.60MM. Thursday closed with +USD 85.20MM (ETHA +90.90MM). The reversal of the persistent outflow trend from recent weeks is a constructive signal for ETH.

SOL: SOL ETFs were the only segment with negative flows, accumulating -USD 17.30MM. Tuesday concentrated most outflows: -USD 15.30MM (BSOL -13.30, GSOL -1.80). The impact of the Drift Protocol exploit continues to weigh on institutional confidence in the Solana ecosystem.