Market Commentary

U.S.-IRAN CONFLICT — DEADLINE EXTENSION WITHOUT RESOLUTION

On Friday March 27, Trump extended by 10 days (through April 6) the pause on operations against Iranian energy infrastructure, at Tehran’s request. Trump indicated that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a “gesture” during negotiations. However, Iran formally rejected Washington’s 15-point plan and submitted its own conditions, including recognition of its authority over the Strait. The ~17.8 million barrels/day that normally transit the Strait remain partially disrupted. Brent trades near USD 97/barrel and WTI above USD 96/barrel.

EQUITIES AND VOLATILITY

Equity markets closed another negative week. The S&P 500 fell to ~6,452 points on Friday (-6.25% for the month), with the Dow closing at 45,960 on Thursday (-1.01%) and the Nasdaq declining 2.38% on Thursday, approaching correction territory. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield neared a one-year high of 4.5%. The combination of elevated energy costs, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty has intensified stagflation concerns.

ENERGY AND COMMODITIES

Gold closed at ~USD 4,430/oz (+USD 38 on Friday’s session), consolidating its position as the primary safe-haven asset with over USD 1,346 in appreciation over 12 months. Oil remained elevated throughout the week with Brent oscillating between ~USD 91 and ~USD 100, closing near USD 97/barrel.

REGULATION AND LEGISLATION THIS WEEK

The CFTC formed an Innovation Task Force (March 24) focused on regulatory frameworks for digital assets, AI, and prediction markets. The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on securities tokenization (March 25). In the UK, cryptocurrency donations to political parties were banned (March 25). Strategy acquired 1,031 BTC for ~USD 76.6MM at ~USD 74,326/BTC, raising total holdings to 762,099 BTC — its thirteenth consecutive week of purchases.

Bitcoin (BTC): BTC opened the week around USD 70,600 following a Monday relief rally driven by U.S.-Iran negotiation announcements. Selling pressure intensified from Wednesday as the quarterly options expiry approached, and Thursday BTC lost the psychological USD 70,000 support. On Friday, the expiry of ~USD 14.16 billion in options and the unresolved Iran conflict drove BTC below USD 67,000 — its lowest level since March 9. ~USD 169MM in BTC long positions were liquidated. Key support at USD 65,000–66,000; tactical resistance at USD 70,050–71,200.

Ethereum (ETH): ETH suffered disproportionate punishment. It opened near USD 2,170 and declined each day, accelerating on Friday with the expiry of ~370,000 options contracts. An early ICO participant from 2014 liquidated 11,552 ETH (~USD 23.4 million). ETH trades in a “death cross” structure. Support at USD 2,000; a break below opens the path toward USD 1,800.

Solana (SOL): SOL declined from ~USD 93 to ~USD 83, a drop of roughly 8%. SOL’s elevated beta to BTC (1.5–1.8x) continues to amplify bearish moves. USD 90 support was breached, with USD 80 and USD 77 as next defense levels. SOL’s digital commodity classification and the Alpenglow upgrade represent medium-term catalysts.

Friday March 27 saw the execution of the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026. On Deribit, ~USD 14.16 billion in BTC options expired (~40% of total open interest). Max pain at USD 75,000. Liquidation cascade: ~USD 169MM in BTC long positions and ~USD 300MM across the broad market. Funding rates at 3-year lows, signaling temporary short-side dominance.

Post-expiry weekend trading operates with lower liquidity. If BTC reclaims USD 70,000, a short squeeze could be triggered. If it loses USD 66,000, the next level sits at USD 60,000. The post-expiry leverage cleanse leaves the market on a cleaner technical base for Week 14.

BTC: The week had two clearly differentiated phases. Monday kicked off with +USD 167.20MM (IBIT +USD 160.80MM, FBTC +USD 41.70MM). Optimism faded quickly: Tuesday -USD 66.60MM, Wednesday +USD 7.80MM, and Thursday -USD 171.30MM — the largest single-day outflow in three weeks with broad-based selling across all major funds.

ETH: Seven consecutive net-outflow days. Thursday -USD 92.50MM (ETHA -USD 140.20MM). Monday -USD 16.20MM, Tuesday -USD 40.70MM, Wednesday -USD 8.50MM. Institutional capital rotation out of ETH — flight-to-quality toward BTC or exit to cash.

SOL: Very low activity with a positive net of +USD 3.40MM. BSOL contributed +USD 3.00MM on Tuesday. Cumulative flows since launch exceed USD 900MM, but pace has decelerated.