Week 25, 2026

Jun 15 – 19, 2026

Market Commentary

Week 25 was defined by two first-order events competing in directionality: the signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran — formally ending over 100 days of conflict — and Warsh's first FOMC, where the dot plot pivoted toward rate hikes for the first time in the cycle. The net result was consolidation: BTC held steady at ~USD 62,956, while ETH and SOL advanced modestly.

(i) U.S.-Iran MOU signed at Versailles — but implementation uncertain: Trump announced the deal Sunday June 14 and physically signed it at Versailles on Wednesday June 17 (same day as the FOMC). Pezeshkian signed digitally in Tehran. The MOU entered immediate effect. However, implementation talks planned for today Friday in Geneva were postponed — Vance delayed his trip and Israeli attacks in Lebanon complicate execution.

(ii) Warsh's FOMC — dot plot pivots to hikes: Rates held at 3.50–3.75% (unanimous 12-0), but the dot plot surprised: 9 of 18 officials project at least one hike in 2026, with 6 projecting two 25bp hikes. Year-end rate median rose to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March). The Dow fell -500 points. Warsh didn't submit a dot — a "regime change" signal.

(iii) ETF outflows continue decelerating: BTC -USD 227.50MM (vs -405MM Week 24). ETH essentially flat (-USD 10.00MM). SOL returned to positive flows (+USD 7.00MM, 4 consecutive sessions).

BTC ETF Flow

-USD 227.50MM

ETH ETF Flow

-USD 10.00MM

SOL ETF Flow

+USD 7.00MM

Macro & Global Markets

U.S.-IRAN MOU — SIGNED AT VERSAILLES, BUT IMPLEMENTATION FACES UNCERTAINTY

On Sunday June 14, Trump announced on Truth Social: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Let the oil flow!" Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf digitally signed the MOU that day, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. On Wednesday June 17 — the same day as the FOMC — Trump physically signed the document at Versailles during a dinner with Macron ("It's signed. Signed in Versailles"), while Pezeshkian signed digitally in Tehran. The MOU entered "immediate effect."

The 14-point agreement establishes: immediate cessation of hostilities (including Lebanon), toll-free Strait of Hormuz reopening for 60 days, naval blockade lifting, and 60 days of negotiations on the nuclear program, sanctions, and long-term Strait management.

However, implementation faces uncertainty: Vance delayed his trip to Switzerland on Thursday without clear explanation. Iranian media indicated "nothing has been confirmed" about Tehran's delegation. Implementation talks planned for today Friday in Geneva are postponed. The main friction point: Israel continues bombing Lebanon despite the MOU establishing an end to all military operations. The risk is that the signed framework may not translate into effective implementation if hostilities in Lebanon persist.

WARSH'S FOMC — THE DOT PLOT PIVOTS TO HIKES

Warsh's first FOMC (Jun 16–17) held rates at 3.50–3.75% with unanimous 12-0 — a notable contrast with April's divided 8-4 vote under Powell. However, the surprise came from the dot plot: 9 of 18 officials project at least one rate hike before year-end, with 6 projecting two 25bp hikes. The year-end rate median rose to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March projections).

Updated SEP projections reflect the war's impact: PCE estimated at 3.6% year-end (vs 2.7% in March), GDP revised down to 2.2% (vs 2.4%), unemployment at 4.3%. 17 of 18 officials see upside inflation risk.

Warsh made two decisions signaling his "regime change": he abstained from submitting a dot (breaking with tradition) and announced five review task forces covering the inflation framework, AI/productivity, data methodology, communications, and the balance sheet — to conclude by year-end. On the 2% target, Warsh was direct: "The 'two' is the left of the decimal point. For now, 'zero' is to the right."

The Dow fell -500 points after the decision. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped +16bp to 4.216%.

EQUITIES & OIL

The Iran deal drove markets higher early in the week (Monday-Tuesday). Wednesday's FOMC partially reversed gains with the Dow -500. Oil fell to the mid-USD 80s/bbl after the MOU signing, easing the energy pressures that have driven headline inflation.

Price Action — Weekly Ranges

Asset

FRIDAY PRICE

Weekly Range

Weekly Var.

BTC

~USD 62,956

61.5K–65.0K

~-1.4%

ETH

~USD 1,699

1.62K–1.73K

~+1.7%

SOL

~USD 68.85

USD 66–70

~+2.2%

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 62,956, consolidating in a narrow range. BTC absorbed two opposing catalysts — the Iran deal (positive) and the hawkish dot plot (negative) — and the net result was stability. The rate hike outlook limits immediate upside, but the Iran conflict's resolution removes the primary selling pressure source of recent weeks. Support at USD 61,000–62,000; resistance at USD 65,000–68,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 1,699, near the USD 1,700 psychological level. ETH benefited proportionally more from the Iran deal than BTC, reflecting its greater sensitivity to risk appetite shifts. ETFs were essentially flat (-USD 10.00MM), with positive Monday/Tuesday before the FOMC reversed the trend. Support at USD 1,620–1,650; resistance at USD 1,750–1,800.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 68.85, leading the recovery at +2.2%. ETFs returned to positive: +USD 7.00MM with 4 consecutive sessions (BSOL +3.00 Thursday, FSOL +3.80 cumulative). SOL resumes its differentiated profile as the highest-beta asset in the ecosystem. Support at USD 66–68; resistance at USD 72–75.

Derivatives & Microstructure

BTC: Outflow deceleration continues: -USD 1,396MM (Week 23) → -405MM (Week 24) → -227.50MM this week. Tuesday was positive (+10.20MM) for the first time this month, driven by the MOU. Wednesday/Thursday (-82.20/-90.70MM) reflected the hawkish dot plot reaction. MSBT continues with inflows all four sessions (+26.80MM cumulative) — confirming selective institutional accumulation.

ETH: Essentially flat (-USD 10.00MM). Monday (+22.50MM) and Tuesday (+9.60MM) were positive — driven by the Iran deal — with BlackRock's ETHA posting +17.60 and +17.30 respectively. The FOMC reversed the trend: Wednesday -29.30MM, Thursday -12.80MM. The pre/post-FOMC dynamic was clear: the deal is positive for ETH; rate hikes are negative.

SOL: Returned to positive flows with +USD 7.00MM across 4 consecutive sessions. Fidelity's FSOL led with +3.80MM and Bitwise's BSOL with +3.00MM Thursday. SOL resumes the differentiated pattern from Weeks 19–21.

U.S Spot ETFs — Institutional Flows

Asset

Net Cumulative Flow

Weekly Trend

BTC

-USD 227.50MM

Continued deceleration (-227MM)

ETH

-USD 10.00MM

Flat — Mon/Tue positive, FOMC reverses

SOL

+USD 7.00MM

Returns to positive — 4 sessions

Conclusion & Positioning

Week 25 closed the geopolitical chapter and opened a monetary policy one. For our investors, the balance is constructive: BTC consolidates at ~USD 62,956 after absorbing the year's most severe correction, and ETF outflows have decelerated from -USD 1,396MM (Week 23) to -USD 227.50MM — a clear signal of selling pressure exhaustion. ETH trades near USD 1,699, and SOL resumed positive flows with 4 consecutive sessions.

The Iran MOU signing removes the primary exogenous volatility catalyst that drove the correction. If implementation advances and energy prices normalize, headline inflation — which is fundamentally energy-driven, not structural (core CPI only +0.2% monthly) — should decelerate, rendering the FOMC's hawkish "dots" moot.

We continue monitoring market conditions very closely. While we have contemplated scenarios of additional corrections given monetary policy uncertainty and MOU implementation risks, we are prepared: our strategies encompass both capital preservation in adverse scenarios and capitalizing on opportunities for spot accumulation and tactical leverage through BTC perpetual futures at high-conviction levels.

Key catalysts — Week 26 (Jun 22–26):

MOU implementation — The MOU is signed and in effect, but Geneva implementation talks were postponed. Progress on Strait reopening and Lebanon resolution will be determinant.
Inflation impact — Post-MOU energy normalization should begin reflecting in inflation expectations. Upcoming CPI data (June, released in July) will determine whether projected hikes materialize.
BTC technical — Support USD 61,000–62,000; resistance USD 65,000–68,000.
ETF flows — Monitoring outflow deceleration continuity and the return of positive flows in ETH and SOL.

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