Market Commentary

CRUDE: BRENT CROSSES USD 100

Last week we noted that Brent above USD 90 would pressure the June CPI's disinflationary argument and liquidity expectations. On Thursday July 23, Brent crossed USD 100 for the first time since May, rising nearly 7% to USD 100.69; WTI advanced to USD 92.19. The trigger was a fresh escalation with Iran — attacks on tankers and Trump's threat of a "massive attack" — with crude accumulating more than 30% on the month.

Friday brought partial relief: Brent retreated nearly 5% to ~USD 88 on reports that Pakistan, backed by China, was seeking to reactivate U.S.–Iran negotiations. Even so, crude closed the week near +10%. For Digital Assets, the effect is direct: the crude rally reintroduces inflationary pressure just ahead of the Fed meeting, lifted Treasury yields, and drained risk appetite on Friday. Into the week's close, it was the geopolitical front that set direction.

SEMICONDUCTORS: TECHNOLOGY SECTOR REBOUND

The semiconductor sector, which had dragged risk markets lower the prior week, moved in the opposite direction. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose more than 5% on the week after entering bear-market territory the prior month. Micron advanced 12% and reclaimed a USD 1 trillion market cap, with the move supported by corporate earnings that mostly beat expectations. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed the week higher.

The relevance for Digital Assets is their correlation with the technology sector: the rebound gave support to BTC and ETH through the week's advance. The concern over hyperscaler capex (the large cloud companies funding artificial intelligence infrastructure) that had triggered the prior week's correction gave ground. The two fronts we had been monitoring moved in opposite directions: the technology one provided support and the geopolitical one drained risk appetite.

FED: FOMC MEETING

The FOMC meeting of July 28–29 dominates the immediate horizon. Consensus expects no rate hike: futures price the Fed holding, with attention on a possible September cut. The risk for investors is one of sequence: the crude rally and new tariff policies — tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners, effective July 24 — lift inflation expectations just as the market was pricing a more accommodative Fed, biasing the balance toward a more cautious communication.

REGULATION: CLARITY ACT AND EU SANCTIONS

The new version of the CLARITY Act incorporated an ethics provision sunsetting in 2029, an advance on the friction point we had been reporting. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune anticipated the bill will struggle to find runway to pass before the summer recess; negotiators point to August 7 as the deadline for 2026. In Europe, the EU adopted its 21st sanctions package against Russia, which for the first time reaches 14 Digital Asset platforms based in offshore jurisdictions, a signal that the regulatory perimeter around non-compliant operators is tightening on both sides of the Atlantic.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trades around USD 64,200, closing the week essentially flat despite touching its highest level in seven weeks. Mid-week it cleared the USD 65,000 resistance — the same profit-taking barrier it had failed to hold last week — and advanced toward USD 66,800, supported by the semiconductor rebound and several consecutive sessions of ETF inflows. Friday it gave the advance back on the crude spike, higher Treasury yields, and new tariff policies. The quality of the move improved despite the flat result: the USD 65,000 level was cleared, and the pullback responded to an external macro factor, not to weakness in demand. Support at USD 63,000–64,000; resistance at USD 66,000–67,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Trades around USD 1,860 (+0.5%), with the most consistent institutional backing of the three assets. ETFs closed at +USD 174.50MM, their third consecutive positive week, channeled almost entirely through BlackRock and Fidelity. Price did not fully reflect the strength of the flow — it closed near where it opened — suggesting Friday's macro pressure also contained ETH. It remains 44% below its level of a year ago. Support at USD 1,820–1,850; resistance at USD 1,950–1,980.

Solana (SOL): Trades around USD 74 (-1.3%), a third consecutive week of decline, though of decreasing magnitude versus the prior two. It reached USD 77.36 Wednesday before ceding with Friday's macro reversal, failing once more to consolidate above USD 78. SOL ETFs, by contrast, posted their best week of the period (+USD 7.10MM), a first sign of incipient institutional interest. The divergence between weak price and improving flow merits monitoring. Support at USD 72–74; resistance at USD 78–80.

The derivatives structure reflected a week of two phases, aligned with price. During the Monday-to-Wednesday advance, leverage expanded in orderly fashion as BTC cleared USD 65,000, without signs of the euphoria that typically precedes corrections. The semiconductor rebound and the strength of ETF flows sustained the move on a spot base, not solely on leveraged positions — a relevant quality difference versus prior rallies.

On Friday, the crude spike above USD 100 and higher Treasury yields reversed the dynamic. The price correction was orderly and did not trigger a significant liquidation cascade, confirming that the prior week's forced deleveraging left the market with cleansed positioning: without excess accumulated leverage, an external shock is absorbed rather than amplified. Funding rates (the cost leveraged investors pay to hold bullish positions) held modestly positive through the advance, a sign of a contained rather than euphoric bullish bias.

Expected volatility for the week ahead: high. The FOMC meeting of July 28–29 is the dominant event, and it arrives with the market repositioning between volatile crude and rising inflation expectations. Brent's trajectory — whether it resumes the path toward USD 100 or consolidates lower with negotiations — will remain the second determinant. Investors should anticipate above-average daily fluctuations.

BTC: +USD 274.00MM, a complete reversal from the prior week's outflows. Three consecutive sessions of inflows — Mon +226.80 (IBIT +116.50, ARKB +72.70), Tue +203.20 (IBIT +163.90), Wed +69.10 — before a USD 225.10MM outflow Thursday (IBIT -202.50), which ended a seven-day streak of positive flows and coincided with the crude spike. The pattern is informative: institutional demand held firm while the environment allowed and withdrew the day crude crossed USD 100. BlackRock led both the accumulation and the exit, confirming IBIT remains the main thermometer of institutional appetite.

ETH: +USD 174.50MM, a third consecutive positive week and the strongest of the period. Flow came almost entirely from BlackRock's ETHA (Tue +52.80, Wed +53.50, Thu +8.50) and Fidelity's FETH (Wed +19.20, Thu +14.90). Unlike BTC, ETH did not register Thursday's outflow — it actually added that day — reinforcing an observation of recent weeks: institutional demand for ETH holds a consistency that BTC's does not always exhibit. It is the third consecutive period in which ETH captures flow more steadily than BTC.

SOL: +USD 7.10MM, its best week of the period. Activity concentrated in Bitwise's BSOL (Mon +2.60, Tue +5.80). Though the magnitude remains marginal versus BTC and ETH, it is the first sign of sustained institutional flow in SOL, and contrasts with the week's price weakness. The institutional case for SOL is beginning to build through the ETF channel too, not just through network fundamentals.