Market Commentary

FED: THE FOMC HOLDS WITH A RESTRICTIVE BIAS

The FOMC held the rate at 3.50%–3.75% on a divided 9-to-3 vote. The three dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted for a 25-bp hike, the most votes in a single direction since 2016. Chair Warsh kept the brief, forward-guidance-free statement, described the economy as resilient, and was emphatic: the inflation target is 2%, with no "soft target." This reduces the expectation of a near-term cut and raises the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets. It was this factor, more than crude, that weighed on price into the close.

CRUDE: REVERSAL FROM USD 100

After crossing USD 100 the prior week, Brent fell nearly 16% over three sessions —its worst stretch in more than six years— to ~USD 84 on Tuesday, on signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, before stabilizing near USD 92. It removes the energy-driven inflationary pressure. Of the two macro factors we had been tracking, the geopolitical one eased and the monetary one tightened.

EQUITIES: DIVERGENCE WITH DIGITAL ASSETS

While BTC and ETH retreated, equities posted strong gains: South Korea's Kospi closed with its largest daily gain since inception and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced firmly. The separation suggests the end-of-July adjustment responded to idiosyncratic factors —positioning and profit-taking— more than to a deterioration in risk appetite. Despite the final week's weakness, July was the best month for the sector in a year: the CoinDesk 20 advanced ~8.7% and BTC accumulated ~7.5% on the month.

REGULATION: CLARITY ACT IN THE FINAL STRETCH

The CLARITY Act reached the end of July without a final Senate floor vote. Bessent described it as at "the 1-yard line," but it requires at least 10 Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote threshold, with opposition around the enforcement of the ethics provision (barring the president, vice president and Congress from issuing or sponsoring Digital Assets, sunsetting in 2029). August 7 is shaping up as the practical deadline for 2026.

BTC: ~USD 62,900 (-2.0%). Closes lower, with the pullback concentrated after the Fed decision and in the month-end session. The decline occurred with positive ETF flows and in a month that closed with a gain near 7.5%: orderly profit-taking rather than a trend change. USD 65,000 again acted as resistance. Support USD 61,000–62,000; resistance USD 64,000–65,000.

ETH: ~USD 1,860 (~0.0%). No net change and the best relative performance of the three assets. ETF backing cooled versus the prior three weeks, but price held up better than BTC. Remains 44% below its level a year ago. Support USD 1,800–1,830; resistance USD 1,920–1,950.

SOL: ~USD 73 (-1.4%). Fourth consecutive week of decline. ETFs reverted to negative (-USD 17.10MM) after the prior week's improvement. Relative weakness versus BTC and ETH persists. Support USD 70–72; resistance USD 76–78.

A month-end with defensive positioning. The final week's correction was orderly and did not trigger a significant liquidation cascade: the forced deleveraging of two weeks ago left the market without excess leverage, so an adjustment is absorbed rather than amplified.

The most revealing data point is in the options market: protection against a BTC drop below USD 60,000 became the most demanded position on Deribit, the largest Digital Asset options platform. It is a sign that investors enter August with a defensive bias, seeking coverage more than upside exposure. This is not an alarming read —hedging is risk management— but it indicates a more cautious August after a strong July.

Expected volatility for the week ahead: high. The July jobs report (Aug 1) and the CLARITY Act deadline (Aug 7) concentrate the catalysts, added to August seasonality and the defensive positioning already visible in options.

BTC: +USD 203.90MM. The week began with pre-Fed outflows (Mon -11.60, Tue -49.70), turned positive on decision day (Wed +32.10, IBIT +89.80) and posted a strong inflow Thursday (+233.10MM, IBIT +183.40). Institutional demand withdrew ahead of the meeting and returned decisively once the decision was known, even with its restrictive bias. The divergence between positive flow and a lower price indicates the weakness responded to short-term positioning, not a withdrawal of the buying base.

ETH: +USD 1.00MM, essentially flat after three weeks of solid inflows. It lost the BlackRock and Fidelity consistency: Wednesday recorded a USD 32.90MM outflow (FETH -16.10, ETHE -9.70). It is a cooling, not a reversal, but it interrupts the relative-allocation signal in favor of ETH.

SOL: -USD 17.10MM. The prior week's improvement did not continue. The outflow concentrated in Bitwise's BSOL on Tuesday (-18.10MM). The institutional case for SOL through ETFs remains the most fragile of the three and the most sensitive to a single issuer.